According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 23rd to 27th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,380 RMB/ton to 2,478 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 4.13% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.10%. Supported by a positive macro outlook, the domestic methanol market has stopped falling. At the same time, the arrival volume of foreign ships is low, port inventory is depleted, and port methanol prices are also relatively strong.
As of the close on September 27th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2,520 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,449 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,412 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,448 RMB/ton in the closing session, up 44 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement, an increase of 1.83%. The trading volume was 617,462 lots, and the position was 650,407 lots, with a daily increase of -4,754.
In terms of cost, imported coal has a price advantage compared to domestic coal, and the demand for imported coal from domestic terminals remains high. It is expected that the import volume will continue to remain high in the later stage; In terms of non electricity, the overall demand recovery in the cement industry has fallen short of expectations, with an increase in locally suspended projects and a lack of tight connection between new and old projects. Downstream demand is lower than in previous years and the decline has expanded compared to the previous period. The chemical industry still maintains normal operations after a small amount of pre holiday storage and transportation, making it difficult to support the market. Overall, it is expected that coal prices will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend before the National Day holiday. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: mainstream factories in Shandong are operating with reduced load, resulting in a decrease in formaldehyde demand; Downstream MTBE: Dongying Shenchi and Shandong Chengtai plants shut down, resulting in reduced MTBE demand; Downstream acetic acid: Tianjian is expected to recover, and if the equipment is extended or normal operation is restored, the demand for acetic acid will increase; Downstream chloride: There are factories in East China with expectations of inventory recovery, leading to an increase in chloride demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no plan to start or stop dimethyl ether, and there is not much change in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, maintenance of Shandong Rongxin equipment; Inner Mongolia Guotai equipment has been restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 26th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $345.00- $346.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 105.00-106.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton, up 9 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the overall supply of goods is abundant, and the growth rate on the demand side is relatively limited. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.
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