According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has risen significantly in recent days (9.18-9.28). As of September 28th, the spot rubber market in China's natural rubber market was around 17,063 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.09% from 16,237 RMB/ton on September 18th. On the one hand, the prices of raw materials have significantly increased during the cycle; On the other hand, domestic Tianjian inventory continues to decline; In addition, downstream tire manufacturers have provided support for pre holiday stocking of natural rubber, which has led to a significant increase in the price of natural rubber due to cost and supply and demand support.
Recently, the poor weather in the production areas of Thailand and Vietnam has led to a certain degree of obstruction in the supply of natural rubber raw materials; On the one hand, domestic processing plants replenish their inventory before the holiday, and on the other hand, there is a lot of rainfall at the beginning of the week in Hainan, which hinders rubber cutting; The price of natural rubber raw materials has significantly increased. As of September 28th, the price of Thai glue is 76.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 72.50 baht/kg on September 18th; As of September 28th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 18,600 RMB/ton, which is significantly higher than the price of 16,800 RMB/ton on September 18th.
Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of September 22, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 422,500 tons, a decrease of 1.77% compared to the previous period.
With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has experienced stable but slight fluctuations in production, and downstream stocking demand before the holiday is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of September 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.
Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to experience strong fluctuations after the holiday.
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