Price trend  

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, nickel prices fluctuated upward this week (9.19-9.29). As of September 29th, spot nickel was quoted at 129,058 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.33%.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday, marking the first such cut since 2020 and exceeding expectations, ushering in the first monetary policy easing cycle in four years. At the same time, the decline of the US dollar had made metals priced in US dollars more attractive to buyers using other currencies. Promote a significant increase in nickel prices and reverse the recent unfavorable market trend.

On the supply side: The situation of oversupply in the nickel market continued, with an increase in growth rate. As of September 27th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 25,504 tons, an increase of 2,659 tons from last week; On September 27th, LME nickel inventory was 130,308 tons, an increase of 6,174 tons from last week.

On the demand side: Consumer performance was average, with prices rising and users slowing down their purchases. The stainless steel market was also constrained by a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. As of the end of September, the spot price of stainless steel was 12,507.14 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.96% from 12,757.14 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 10.21%. The demand for alloys in military and shipping industries was still acceptable, and customers purchased mainly on demand.

Market outlook

Macro bullish factors are boosting, but inventory is under pressure and demand support is insufficient. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly consolidate in the short term.

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