According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of domestically refined gasoline and diesel in September have significantly declined. As of the end of the month, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 7,523 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.39% from the initial price of 7,303 RMB/ton; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,521 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.02% from the beginning of the month price of 7,013 RMB/ton.

Cost aspect: The crude oil market price in September fell, and the cost aspect also decreased

As of the 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.18 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.98 per barrel. The crude oil trend in September has significantly declined, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the crude oil market trend. The easing of the situation at the beginning of the month has led to a significant decline in the crude oil market; Since September, there have been concerns about the future demand for crude oil market, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; Finally, due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and negative factors, the overall crude oil market prices have significantly decreased, and the domestic refined oil market continues to decline.

Supply side: Refinery starts production, increases supply side

In September, some maintenance facilities in Shandong were restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong was around 56%, and the operating rate of major refineries in the country rose to around 84%. The operating rate of local refineries continued to rise, and the supply of refined oil products increased. The trend of local refinery gasoline and diesel market declined.

Demand side: Demand is not showing signs of improvement, and the market continues to decline

In terms of gasoline, with the end of summer tourism and the hot weather, the use of car air conditioning has decreased, resulting in poor gasoline demand. Intermediaries are replenishing their inventory as needed, and the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, causing a significant decline in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, the increase in demand for marine fuel after the opening of the Bohai Sea has provided some support for the market. However, there is currently no improvement in the start of outdoor projects, and agricultural diesel has come to an end. The consumption of diesel market resources is slow, and traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. The accumulation of diesel market stocks has emerged, and the trend of diesel prices has declined.

Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the price trend of the gasoline market has declined; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches and diesel usage gradually increases, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market may slightly rise in the short term.

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