Since September, the BR market has seen a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 30th, the BR market price in East China was 16,490 RMB/ton, an increase of 7.29% from 15,370 RMB/ton at the beginning of September. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost has driven the rise of BR; The overall production of BR remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for BR. The supply price of Shunding rubber has been gradually increased within the month. As of September 30th, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding by PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was between 16,300 and 16,600 RMB/ton.
Since September, the price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the cost of BR has strong support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 30th, the price of butadiene was 13,700 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.00% from 12,925 RMB/ton at the beginning of September, and the low point during the cycle was 12400 RMB/ton.
The domestic BR plant started operating at a low level in September, and with the planned shutdown and maintenance of the Qilu Petrochemical and Taiwan Rubber Ube plants in the later stage, the supply pressure of BR is not high.
Demand side: Since September, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is supported by the demand of the BR market. As of September 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 56%.
From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the high price of raw material butadiene will provide strong cost support for BR; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; Recently, downstream tire companies have been stocking up on BR before the holiday, which has provided some support. Overall, the BR market is expected to maintain a high operating trend in the short term.
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