According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, this month the PVC spot market will rise first, and the price will continue the previous decline in the first half of the year. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the market will start and the price will rebound at the bottom. But it did not exceed the high point at the beginning of the month. According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, as of the end of the month, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5,254 RMB/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.68%.
Supply side: In the first half of the year, the spot market performed poorly, and the linkage between futures and spot prices declined. The main reason is the loose supply performance, increased market shipment pressure, and repeated low points in dealer offers. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. In the latter half of the year, the PVC spot market performed strongly, reversing the previous decline, especially driven by the futures market, which saw the spot market climb steadily. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable. In the early stage, companies that had reduced their operating costs have taken actions to increase their costs, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, PVC inventory remained relatively high in September, and the process of de stocking was slow. As the end of the month approaches, there is a phase of high transaction volume in the market, and social inventory has slightly decreased. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side, the market price of calcium carbide also rebounded in September, with a monthly increase of 2.53% according to monitoring by SunSirs. The increase in downstream procurement volume in the latter half of the year has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5,300-5,450 RMB/ton.
The PVC analyst from SunSirs believes that PVC supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers is gradually decreasing. Although the inventory of enterprises has been reduced, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the emotional improvement brought by the introduction of stimulus measures, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. With the downstream facing the weakening impact of holiday construction, the positive support effect is not obvious. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.
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