According to the bulk ranking data from SunSirs, the domestic PC market in September was weak and consolidated at a low level, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a narrow decline. As of October 1st, the mixed benchmark price of SunSirs PC is around 16,100 RMB/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.72% compared to early September.
In terms of supply: In early September, the overall operating rate of PC in China increased, and by mid month, the industry average operating rate had risen by 6% before narrowly falling back and running until now. At the end of the month, the overall industry load was around 79%. The spot price of PC remains at a low point within the year for the medium to long term, but the industry's weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60,000 tons, with abundant on-site supply and a mismatch between supply and demand. Under the loose supply pattern in September, manufacturers have been under pressure to lower their factory prices. The future maintenance plan is sparse, the supply-demand contradiction pattern is profound, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of bisphenol A in China remained flat until the end of September, and then significantly declined. During the month, the prices of phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials for bisphenol A, fluctuated, with average cost support. The downstream production of the two main forces has limited changes, coupled with insufficient stocking heat during the Double Festival, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A has not further improved. At the end of the month, the load of bisphenol A industry is expected to return to excess, and the supply of goods is expected to increase. Overall, bisphenol A's support for PC cost remained stable at first and then weakened.
In terms of demand: The PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. However, the traditional peak season of "Golden September" has already ended, and the terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded. The main logic of procurement tends to be weak and rigid demand. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. The market has not responded well to the double festival stocking market, and buyers are strongly resistant to high priced goods, resulting in slow circulation of goods on site. Due to unexpected peak season consumption, it is difficult for the demand side to provide strong support for spot prices.
The PC market is running at a low and weak level in September. The upstream bisphenol A market first stabilized and then fell, while the cost support for PC weakened. Domestic aggregation plants have high loads and high supply. The current low point of PC prices is weakly consolidating, and downstream peak season consumption has not yet begun, making it difficult for weak demand stocking to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. However, the macro commodity market sentiment has improved, and the market momentum has been boosted by it. SunSirs predicts that the PC market may stabilize and slightly rebound after the holiday.
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