The domestic ABS market remained weak in September, with spot prices of various grades falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of October 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11,512.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of -1.71% compared to the price level on September 1st.
Supply level: The load level of the domestic ABS industry was average in September, and some units resumed work after short-term repairs in the first half of the month. The industry's operating rate fluctuated and stabilized at around 65%, with overall stability and small fluctuations throughout the month. The overall digestion of on-site goods is slow, while the supply is abundant and inventory is high. At the end of the month, the demand for stocking up before the National Day holiday was released, and the inventory pressure of ABS finished products decreased by 10,000 tons to about 180,000 tons compared to the previous period. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: During September, the three upstream materials of ABS showed mixed trends, with average support for ABS costs. Acrylonitrile has been fluctuating throughout the month. The consumption within the month did not meet the expectations of the peak demand season, but there was a slight improvement in spot trading in the market in the latter half of the month, and prices stopped falling and stabilized. At the end of the month, the inventory of acrylonitrile plants continued to decline, and there were maintenance plans for both the north and south units in October. Supply is expected to continue to decrease, giving the market some confidence. But continuing to rise is still not enough, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive news on the ground.
The butadiene market continued its upward trend in September. In the first ten days, due to the arrival of some goods from the port and the export of individual goods, the tight supply in the northern region was smoothed out. Sinopec has raised the ex factory price of butadiene twice in the middle of the month, which has boosted the mentality of cargo holders and significantly boosted market sentiment, resulting in a general increase in quotations. The synthetic rubber market rose after the Mid Autumn Festival in the last ten days, the mentality of butadiene spot market improved, and the mentality of price fixing increased. Before the National Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand was released, and prices remained stable with a moderate to strong trend.
Recently, the styrene market has been fluctuating. Although crude oil has rebounded slightly in recent days, significant fluctuations in the previous market have dragged down the weakness of pure benzene prices, while the cost support of styrene remains at a general level. The supply is relatively abundant, and there is an expectation for short-term memory growth. Domestic demand is relatively stable, and the situation of new orders is average. There is a struggle between long and short positions in the market, and there is limited change in the supply and demand of styrene spot before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. It is expected that the market will continue to organize and operate in the future.
In terms of demand: Since September, the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level. On the contrary, the off-season market continues, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence, have a low willingness to build warehouses, and offer according to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.
In September, the domestic ABS price trend was relatively weak. Upstream material sorting is the main focus, with average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant is stable with small fluctuations, and the high inventory of finished products is slightly digested. The weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues, and market trading remains weak. The mismatch between supply and demand in the market is difficult to change. Affected by multiple bearish factors, the traditional peak demand season expectation for September has not been fulfilled. However, the macro commodity market sentiment has improved, and the market momentum has been boosted by it. It is expected that the ABS market will stop falling and consolidate in the short term after the holiday.
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