Price trend
In September, the dichloromethane market fluctuated and tended to rise. In mid September, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong reached a high point of 2,780 RMB/ton, an increase of 7.13%, and then fell back. In late September, it remained stable and tended to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 30th, the average price of bulk dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 2,720 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase of 4.82%.
Analysis review
The cost of raw materials had slightly increased, and the focus of the methanol and liquid chlorine market had shifted upward in September; The operating rate of methane chloride units had slightly decreased. In the first half of the month, the dichloromethane market continued to rise, but the demand side's holiday replenishment heat was average, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was weak. Downstream customers basically maintained their urgent needs for replenishment, and the shipment volume of enterprises significantly decreased, while inventory began to grow rapidly. Returning after the holiday, the overall market demand was mainly following suit, with manufacturers lowering prices one after another to increase market activity, and low prices driving a relatively optimistic market transaction atmosphere. In the second half of the month, the market was stable and trending upwards, with factory prices slightly rising. As the holiday approached, procurement and replenishment were basically over, and the ability to receive goods was limited. As of September 30th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2,700-2,740 RMB/ton.
On the supply side: With the low load and maintenance recovery of the equipment, the domestic methane chloride operating rate had slightly increased compared to the beginning of the month.
In terms of raw materials, the methanol market in September first fell and then rose. The overall supply of goods was abundant, but the growth rate on the demand side was relatively limited. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2,478.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.07% from the beginning of the month. The center of liquid chlorine prices had shifted upwards, and the market trading atmosphere had improved.
In terms of demand: Dichloromethane has a wide range of applications and plays an important role in various industries. The popularity of double section replenishment procurement was average, and overall essential procurement was the main focus. In the first half of the year, downstream refrigerant R32 was overused by air conditioning companies, and the demand continued to increase, easing the tight supply situation in the market. The quota policy had a significant impact on R32, and the market price of R32 rose to around 38,000 RMB/ton. Channel procurement did not fall back, and the market remained strong, which provided positive support for dichloromethane market.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that the upward trend in raw material prices will be supported by major factories shutting down for maintenance after the holiday, which will support the upward trend in the dichloromethane market. However, due to holiday restocking and a significant decrease in demand after the holiday, the market is bearish. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will experience a consolidation or slight upward movement.
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