The domestic refined oil price adjustment window ill opened at 24:00 on October 10th. The retail price of refined oil in this round increased, and the retail price in 2024 experienced seven upward adjustments, eight downward adjustments, and four stranded adjustments. The crude oil market trend rose during the cycle, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 encountered the "eighth" upward adjustment.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has risen. As of the 9th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $76.58 per barrel. During China's National Day holiday, international oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had a positive impact on international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+ 2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. However, concerns about the global economy and demand outlook still exist in the market, coupled with the end of the US oil peak and the increase in US crude oil inventories suppressing the rise in crude oil prices. Overall, the trend of crude oil prices has risen during the cycle. As of the 10th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 2.30%, corresponding to an increase of 140 RMB/ton of gasoline and 135 RMB/ton of diesel, equivalent to an increase of 0.11 RMB/liter of 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, and 0# diesel.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rates of both main and local refineries have increased to a certain extent. Some maintenance facilities in Shandong have been restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 57%, and the operating rate of main refineries in the country has risen to around 84%. The operating rate of local refineries continues to rise, and the supply of finished oil has increased. Although gasoline demand has increased during the National Day period, intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought some impact on gasoline demand, and the gasoline market remains weak.
In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side diesel market has increased. In terms of diesel, the increase in demand for marine fuel after the opening of the Bohai Sea has provided some support for the market. However, the current outdoor project construction has not improved, and agricultural diesel has come to an end. The consumption of resources in the diesel market is slow, and traders and terminal enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, resulting in a slight increase in the diesel market.
Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the gasoline market price remains weak; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches and diesel usage gradually increases, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market may slightly rise in the short term.
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