According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, the average factory price of domestic refined naphtha as of March 31 was 5,260.00 RMB/ ton, down 16.20% from 6,276.67 RMB/ ton at the beginning of March, and the price of refined naphtha continued to fall sharply in March.

On March 30, the naphtha commodity index was 66.15, down 1.65 points from yesterday, down 35.54% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 56.61% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the price of ground refined naphtha continued to fall sharply last month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 4,700 RMB/ ton.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $47.09 / barrel at the beginning of March, $20.09/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -57.34%; Brent crude oil is $51.73/ barrel at the beginning of the month, $26.42/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -48.93%. At the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that their production has increased substantially. Meanwhile, affected by the overseas epidemic of COVID-19, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the mainstream price of toluene in East China is about 3,050 RMB/ ton. At present, the mainstream price of isomerized xylene in East China is about 3,180 RMB/ ton. The domestic market price of p-xylene is about 4,300 RMB/ ton.

Market Forecast

According to the energy analyst of SunSirs, affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the naphtha market in Asia is operating at a low level. Recently, the refining supply has increased, but the demand is limited. At present, a small number of refineries sell large quantities of naphtha in advance. In April, the market supply and demand are not significantly good. It is expected that the price of naphtha in April will continue to decline, with the average price range of 4,500-5,200 RMB/ ton.

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