Price trend

During the long holiday, the spot price of vinyl cyanide slightly weakened, but the overall fluctuation was limited. After the holiday, the differentiated supply pattern between the north and south continued, and the factory load in East China was not high, resulting in relatively firm prices; However, the supply in the north was relatively saturated, and spot negotiations were also weak. As of October 11th, the mainstream transaction reference price for deliveries within the Shandong region was around 8,250-8,350 RMB/ton, a decrease of 100 RMB/ton compared to the previous period. The market price in East China ports remained stable, with the mainstream self pickup reference price reaching 8,500-8600 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Supply reduction: Due to fluctuations in some facilities in East China, the industry's capacity utilization rate had further declined. Shanghai Saike Vinyl cyanide Plant was shut down for maintenance from January to September due to a malfunction, causing the industry's capacity utilization rate to drop below 70%, and the supply was relatively limited. However, the northern resources were saturated, and Jilin Petrochemical's 240,000 ton tricarboxylic acid plant had been restarted and restored, resulting in an increase in supply. As of October 9th, the total inventory of vinyl cyanide factories in China was about 45,800 tons, with little change compared to before the holiday.

Cost increase: During the festival, the price of propylene in Shandong's market rose strongly, with mainstream transactions referring to 6,880-6,980 RMB/ton. The continued increase in cost pressure provided strong support for the vinyl cyanide market.

Weak demand: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of vinyl cyanide had decreased. As of the weekend, the capacity utilization rate of ABS was 61.50%, a decrease of 3.94% compared to the previous period.

Market outlook

As of October 11, some maintenance facilities had been gradually restored, and the industry's capacity utilization rate has significantly increased to over 70%, with an increase in supply. However, the overall downstream demand remained weak, and the fundamentals were not good. In the short term, the market may continue to operate to be weaker.

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