Recently (10.1-10.12), the market price of BR surged and fell after National Day Holiday. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of October 12th, the market price of BR in East China was 16,570 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.49% from 16490 RMB/ton on October 1st, and a decrease of 1.43% from the high point of 16,810 RMB/ton during the cycle. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly fallen, and the overall cost of BR still has support; BR production is still at a low level; Downstream all steel tires are operating at a low level. After the holiday, the supply prices of BR suppliers were first raised and then lowered, and the quotes from merchants were adjusted at a high level. As of October 12th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China were 16,450-16,800 RMB/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline slightly, and the cost of BR still has support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of October 12th, the price of butadiene was 13,437 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.92% from 13,700 RMB/ton on October 1st.

Recently (10.1-10.12), the overall start-up of domestic BR plants is still at a low level of 60%. After the holiday, Qilu Petrochemical will shut down for maintenance, and Taiwan Rubber's Ube plant will be shut down for maintenance in the later stage. The pressure on the supply side of BR is not significant.

Demand side: Downstream all steel tire production is running at a low level, providing strong support for the demand in the BR market. As of October 10th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 42%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly fall, but there is still cost support for BR; BR production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; Recently, downstream production of all steel tires has been at a low level, and downstream consumers are resistant to high priced sources of goods. Overall, the BR market may continue to decline at a high level.

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