According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating at a high level recently (10.1-10.12). As of October 12th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17,238 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.92% from 17,942 RMB/ton on October 1st, and an increase of 1.39% from the low point of 17,002 RMB/ton during the cycle. After the National Day holiday, raw material prices fluctuated at a high level; In addition, domestic Tianjian inventory continues to slowly decline; After the holiday, downstream tire factories mostly stocked up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, and the natural rubber market fluctuated at a high level.

After the holiday, the rainfall in Thailand decreased and the cutting level increased to 70%, while the weather in Vietnam's production areas remained poor; The weather in China is good after the holiday, but the supply of glue in Hainan region is not as good as in previous years due to the impact of previous typhoons; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high. As of October 10th, the price of Thai glue is 79.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 76.50 baht/kg on September 30th; As of October 10th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 19,300 RMB/ton, which is higher than the price of 18,600 RMB/ton on September 30th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of October 6, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 409,500 tons, which continued to decrease from 422,500 tons before the holiday.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, downstream production of all steel tires has been running at a low level. After the holiday, downstream demand inquiries have increased, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of October 10th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 42%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Semi steel tire production is stable, while full steel tire production is at a low level, providing strong support for natural rubber demand but resisting high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian is showing a slow trend of destocking; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term.

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