According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the activity of the corrugated paper market has increased after the National Day holidays, and the price has slightly risen. On October 12th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,600 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.26% compared to the average price of 2,594 RMB/ton on October 1st.
In terms of upstream raw materials: After the holiday, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region has been reduced, and the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills has also decreased. On October 12th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang region was 1,527 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.04% compared to the average price on October 1st. In the early stage, due to the tight supply of waste yellow cardboard, most paper mills faced significant cost pressure due to high prices. The National Day holiday has led to an increase in the supply of waste yellow cardboard, resulting in a slight increase in the amount of waste paper collected by domestic recycling stations. Some paper mills have also seen an increase in the amount of goods received, leading to a decrease in the price of waste paper from many paper mills after the holiday, and neighboring paper mills have also followed suit.
On the supply side: The current trading situation in the corrugated paper market is good, and most paper mills have a high enthusiasm for price increases, which has helped the market price slightly rise. The process of destocking for paper companies has been relatively smooth, and some paper mills may continue to experience price increases. But with the resumption of production on the shutdown production line, the market supply may increase, and downstream packaging factories' raw paper procurement mostly follows up on urgent needs. The market may enter the consolidation stage, and the overall operation is relatively stable.
On the demand side: Prior to the National Day holiday, multiple bases of large-scale paper mills announced plans for post holiday price increases. Driven by the atmosphere of shouting for price increases, downstream packaging factories are replenishing their inventory at low prices and adding a moderate amount of raw paper inventory, resulting in increased market trading activity and smoother destocking for paper mills. After the holiday, driven by large-scale paper mills, most small and medium-sized paper mills saw their prices rise, helping to shift the focus of market transactions slightly upward.
The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that October is still in the traditional peak season of the corrugated paper market, and downstream replenishment willingness is strong after the holiday, which will provide positive support for corrugated paper prices. If the price of waste yellow cardboard paper continues to decline or improves the profitability of paper companies, it is expected that the price of corrugated paper will remain stable in the short term.
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