According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in March was 1,315.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of March and 1,092.50 RMB/ ton at the end of the month, down 222.50 RMB/ ton in the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -16.92%.

On March 31, the petroleum coke commodity index was 84.97, unchanged from the previous day, down 45.39% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.03% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: in March, the ground refining petroleum coke fell sharply, mainly due to the resumption of coking units in the ground refining enterprises, and the increase of production in PetroChina and SINOPEC enterprises, the increase of market supply and abundant inventory.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $47.09/ barrel at the beginning of March, $20.09/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -57.34%; Brent crude oil was $51.73/ barrel at the beginning of the month, $26.42/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -48.93%. At the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that their production has increased substantially. Meanwhile, affected by the overseas epidemic of COVID-19, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Downstream: Calcined coke pressure falls; downstream enterprises mainly wait and see. Electrolytic aluminum market prices fell, carbon enterprises trading was light. According to the data of SunSirs, as of March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 11,500.00 RMB/ ton.

Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predicts that the market of petroleum coke in March fell sharply, mainly due to the resumption of coking units of local refining enterprises, the increase of production of PetroChina and Sinopec, the increase of market supply and abundant inventory, the limited downstream operating rate and low demand. The price decline of prebaked anode in April is not clear, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke will be stable as a whole in April, with small fluctuations in some enterprises, and the price range may be around 900-1,100 RMB/ ton.

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