According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, after the National Day holiday, the domestic soybean meal market still maintained a downward trend, oscillating for half a month. The average market price of soybean meal fell to around 3,000 RMB/ton, with an overall decline of over 4%. On October 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,186 RMB/ton. On October 15th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,038 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.65%.
Supply side: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports in September 2024 were 11.37 million tons, a decrease of 6.3% compared to the previous month and an increase of 59.0% year-on-year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume of soybeans in China was 81.85 million tons, an increase of 8.1% compared to the same period last year. The import volume of soybeans in September has declined but remains high. The pressure on imported soybean supply remains, limiting the upward trend of soybean meal prices.
Inventory: According to the Business Society soybean meal inventory statistics chart, it can be seen that the soybean meal inventory continued to decline from January to April 2024, with the week of April 5th being the lowest point of the year, only 300,000 tons. From May to July, soybean meal continued to accumulate and inventory levels continued to rise, exceeding 1 million tons. As of the week of August 9th, soybean meal inventory has approached 1.5 million tons. After September, inventory pressure has eased to some extent. During the National Day holiday, soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance, and soybean meal inventory continued to decline. As of the week ending October 11th, soybean meal inventory fell to the 1 million ton mark, and the pressure of weekly decline in inventory remained high. The soybean meal market showed weak upward momentum.
Futures: After the National Day holiday, US soybeans were listed one after another, with high inventory and loose supply. The rise in the US soybean market in the external market was dampened, while domestic soybean futures fell along with the market, and the rebound of soybean meal was weak. On October 15th, the main contract for soybean meal received 2,992 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.89% from the beginning of the month. The futures market is weak, and the spot market for soybean meal continues to weaken.
Demand: As we enter October, the demand in the terminal breeding industry is declining, and the amount of soybean meal purchased by feed mills is decreasing. The soybean meal market is at a low level, resulting in lower bullish expectations for the soybean meal market, low purchasing volume, limited transactions, weak demand, and a continuous decline in the market.
The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that in mid October, the weather will turn cold, and the demand for soybean meal terminal feed will recover. The news of high yield of American soybeans will be digested by the market, and the soybean meal market is expected to rise in the future, with the possibility of a rebound from the decline.
If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.