Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the lithium carbonate market showed a slight rebound trend after the holiday. As of October 14th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 81,400 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.63% from 77,800 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 78,800 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.79% from 75,200 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

In terms of inventory: As of the end of September, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 124,600 tons, a decrease of 2,095 tons compared to the previous month. Among them, 5,035 tons were unloaded from the upstream, and 2,939 tons were accumulated from downstream and other links. The destocking of upstream smelters had a positive impact on market prices, driving up prices. However, in the long run, the supply side has not yet seen large-scale production cuts, and the planned increase in production of new lithium salt projects was still significant. InfoLink predicts that the total global output of lithium carbonate is expected to reach 1.323 million tons by 2024.

On the demand side: Since July, the production schedule of the lithium battery industry chain has continued to increase. Especially in October, the production of batteries, separators, and electrolytes continued to increase month on month. Among them, the production growth rate of battery factories is between 3% and 5%, while the production growth rate of separator and electrolyte manufacturers is around 2%. The continuous improvement of production scheduling in the lithium battery industry chain not only drives an increase in demand for lithium carbonate, but also helps to further digest excess inventory.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the lithium battery industry chain production continued to increase, and the demand for lithium carbonate has also increased, which will help further digest excess inventory. However, in the medium to long term, the market supply and demand relationship still faces a game, requiring close attention to market dynamics and policy changes.

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