Trend of thermal coal market

This week, the thermal coal market has remained sluggish. Affected by poor procurement from downstream customers, the trading in the Bohai Rim port market is sluggish, and traders' quotations are weak and stable. The daily consumption of power plants has decreased, coal demand is sluggish, and port shipments are difficult. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and traders are selling according to the index, resulting in a widening decline.

In terms of imports

Although international coal prices have generally risen recently, imported coal still has a significant price advantage over domestic coal, so the import volume still has the foundation to maintain a high level.

Therefore, under the continued loose supply and demand situation, it is expected that the port thermal coal market will not be able to change its weak situation in the short term, and prices are likely to continue to be under pressure and decline

Origin situation

The power coal market in Ordos is operating weakly and steadily. Most coal mines in the region maintain normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. The current downstream demand is poor, and the port market is deadlocked with few transactions. Coal plants and traders in the production area are cautious and watching, and the overall market sentiment is weak. Some coal mine inventories have increased, and in order to stimulate the market, they have chosen to lower prices for sales, with a reduction of 5-15 RMB/ton. It is expected that coal prices from production areas will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

Port situation

The index of thermal coal in northern ports has been declining for 7 consecutive days, and many coal mines in the northern region have experienced the phenomenon of accumulated inventory and "overbooking". On October 17th, the market price of thermal coal (non power plant flow) in northern ports was 5,500CV, 857 RMB/ton (-1); 5,000CV, 755 RMB/ton (-1); 4,500CV, 665 RMB/ton (-1).

In the later stage, with the stable supply and realization of long-term contract coal, coupled with the high-level replenishment of imported coal, it is expected that the inventory of power plants will maintain a year-on-year upward trend, which is difficult to improve spot procurement.

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