According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 14th to 18th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2,510 RMB/ton to 2,439 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 2.82% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.76%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline, with production and supply maintaining high levels, and demand increasing narrowly on a month on month basis, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals are relatively weak, and the overall weak operation of the domestic methanol market is the main reason.
As of the close on October 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2,425 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,448 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,424 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,434 RMB/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 16 RMB/ton or 0.65% from the previous trading day's settlement, with a trading volume of 526,898 lots and a holding volume of 636,172 lots, with a daily increase of -502.
In terms of cost, recently, the temperature in most areas has been suitable, and the demand for residential electricity has decreased. Coupled with the average performance of industrial electricity, some thermal power units have started off-season maintenance, and the daily consumption of power plants has rapidly fallen to a low level within the year. With the replenishment of long-term contracts and imported coal, inventory has rebounded to a mid to high level during the same period, and downstream demand for market coal continues to decline. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Qianjiang Jinhuarun plant stopped selling inventory, Lankao Huitong plant started operation, and dimethyl ether demand remained stable; Downstream acetic acid: Yankuang Phase I has resumed normal operation, with high levels of acetic acid production and stable demand for methanol; There is currently no plan to start or stop the formaldehyde, chloride, and MTBE units, and there is little fluctuation in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, maintenance of Shanxi Yaxin equipment; Xinjiang's new industrial facilities have reduced production; The Yankuang plant in Xinjiang has been restored. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of October 17th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00-347.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 113.00 to 114.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 379.50-380.50 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, traditional demand terminals have not shown any improvement, and the demand for raw materials continues to be driven by rigid procurement. The market supply-demand contradiction still exists. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.
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