Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 14th to 18th, the average price of BDO in China rose from 7,342 RMB/ton to 7,457 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.56% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 28.69%. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry continued to decline, and transportation in Xinjiang was slow, resulting in a shortage of market supply. The main supplier of the goods was the contract order, and the spot quantity was limited. The mainstream quotation was on the rise.

Analysis review

On the supply side, with the shutdown of a set of equipment in Inner Mongolia and the extension of 15 days for oil replacement, the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry had once again declined, and the market supply of goods was favorable.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: Recently, with the increase in supply and downstream maintenance, there had been a significant increase in market supply, leading to a decline in the domestic calcium carbide market. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market was mainly experiencing a decline. As of 10:00 am on October 18th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang was 2,445 RMB/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market was rising, while methanol prices were narrowly declining, and the impact on BDO costs was mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PU slurry, and TPU had seen an increase in load, while other downstream industries such as PBT and PBAT had seen a decrease in load, and most industries were in a loss making state with limited ability to accept high prices. The impact of BDO demand remained to be seen.

Market outlook

The industry's capacity utilization rate was still at a low level, and the tight supply of goods in the market continued. The profit intention of suppliers was actively supporting the market. SunSirs’ analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is expected to rise.

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