Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel had slightly decreased this week. As of October 18th, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was quoted at 12,878.57 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.37% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 6.09%.

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the prices of nickel and stainless steel were basically similar, and the price of stainless steel had fluctuated with the rise and fall of nickel prices. Recently, the price of stainless steel had slightly fallen.

Analysis review

This week's stainless steel inventory totaled 101.95 tons, an increase of 0.89% compared to last week. Among them, cold-rolled inventory increased while hot-rolled inventory decreased.

From an upstream perspective, the progress of RKAB approval in Indonesia was slow, but the tension in nickel ore supply had eased compared to before. With the rainy season approaching in the Philippines, the future supply may remain tight. In terms of nickel iron, under the macroeconomic favorable conditions, stainless steel profits had rebounded and supply and demand had improved.

From the supply side, the total production of stainless steel in China in September decreased by 0.3% month on month and about 3% year-on-year, indicating strong supply and weak demand, and high inventory of stainless steel production. In October, macro driven prices rebounded and stainless steel profits recovered well. It is expected that the total stainless steel production in October will increase by about 1%, with the production of 300 series remaining basically unchanged. In October, domestic crude steel production was scheduled to reach 3.244 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.36%. With improved profits, production may exceed expectations. In terms of demand, there has been a marginal improvement after the holiday, but the overall increase was limited.

Market outlook

In summary, the production schedule of stainless steel plants remained at a high level. Although there has been some improvement in downstream inventory replenishment recently, the extent was limited. Social inventory has accumulated slightly, and the strengthening of nickel iron prices has supported stainless steel futures prices. However, social inventory has turned into a small accumulation. Coupled with the release of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, it is expected that stainless steel prices will be under pressure in the short term.

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