Price trend

This week (October 13-1018), the oversupply of nickel continued, and macro sentiment cooled down, putting pressure on the downward trend of nickel prices. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, as of October 18th, spot nickel was quoted at 129,366 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.01%.

Analysis review

Macro wise: Recently, the macro environment of the nickel market has shown a complex trend, and the market's optimistic expectations at the policy level have cooled down, leading to continued concerns about the global economic outlook.

Supply side: The situation of nickel oversupply continued, and inventory pressure had increased compared to last week. As of October 18th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 28,905 tons, an increase of 3,911 tons from last Friday; On October 18th, LME nickel inventory was 134,370 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from last Friday.

On the demand side: rigid procurement, slight accumulation of stainless steel social inventory, and slight price decline. As of October 18th, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was quoted at 12,878.57 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.37% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 6.09%. The demand for alloys in military and shipping industries was still acceptable, and customers purchased on demand.

Market outlook

Nickel supply exceeded demand, inventory was under pressure, and expectations for macroeconomic positive news were driving. It is expected that nickel prices will consolidate in the short term.

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