According to the latest report released by LMC Automotive, the global seasonally adjusted annualized sales of light vehicles in September 2024 were 90 million units per year, unchanged from the previous month. From the year-on-year data, the sales volume for the month decreased by about 4% compared to the same period in 2023, continuing the downward trend. The cumulative sales of the global light vehicle market from January to September were only slightly higher than the same period last year.
Sales in most major global markets experienced a decline in September. The Chinese market is facing the impact of economic headwinds. Despite the government's continuous incentive policies to encourage car trade ins, sales for the month still decreased by 5% year-on-year. The sales days in the US market in September this year were less than last year, resulting in a year-on-year decline in sales. Due to the weak economic situation and high car prices dragging down the performance of the light vehicle market, sales in the Western European market have not improved. The performance of each market is as follows:
--North America--
Due to fewer sales days in September compared to the same period last year, the sales of light vehicles in the United States have slowed down, with a year-on-year decrease of 12% to 1.18 million units. Despite a decline in sales, seasonally adjusted annualized sales for the month saw strong growth, rising from 15.2 million vehicles per year in August to 16 million vehicles per year. The sales bonus for September climbed to $3,125, setting a new high in 12 months. However, with the large-scale delivery of 2025 models from major automakers to dealerships across the United States, the average transaction price of new cars for the month increased by $765 compared to the previous month.
In September, Canadian light vehicle sales decreased by 1% year-on-year to 155,000 units, marking the first time this year that monthly sales have experienced a year-on-year decline. Although the sales of light vehicles were lower than the same period last year, considering that the sales days in September were fewer than last year and the economic performance was mediocre, the sales results for that month have far exceeded expectations. On the Mexican side, sales in September slightly decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 117,000 vehicles, marking the first time since April 2022 that monthly sales have experienced a year-on-year decline. This result is also due to the fact that the number of sales days in September this year was less than last year. The seasonally adjusted annualized sales for the month increased from 1.48 million vehicles per year in August to 1.6 million vehicles per year.
--Europe--
In September, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume of the Western European light vehicle market decreased to 13.1 million vehicles per year, while the monthly sales volume decreased by 4% year-on-year to 1.2 million vehicles. The cumulative sales volume from January to September exceeded 10 million vehicles, an increase of 1.2% compared to the same period last year. The overall situation of the Western European automotive industry remains unchanged, with strong car prices, high interest rates, and a lack of incentive policies continuing to constrain sales performance in the region. With the comprehensive boost of the economy due to the loosening of monetary policy and the launch of relatively affordable electric vehicles, the Western European light vehicle market is expected to achieve a certain degree of improvement by 2025.
The seasonally adjusted annualized sales of light vehicles in Eastern Europe in September were 4.8 million units per year, an increase from the previous month. The monthly sales increased by 10% year-on-year to 400,000 vehicles, and the cumulative sales from January to September continued to grow strongly by 17% year-on-year. Sales in Russia continued to increase in September, which is in line with previous expectations as the country is about to raise disposal fees and interest rates for scrapped vehicles, leading to an early release of future sales. As the deflation process started and the monetary policy was still tightened, the sales volume in Türkiye began to decline.
--China--
According to the quick report, despite the continued implementation of the trade in subsidy program, the domestic automobile market in China still performs poorly. The seasonally adjusted annualized sales for September are expected to be 25.9 million vehicles per year, a decrease of 3% from the previous month. The monthly sales approached 2.3 million vehicles, setting a new high for monthly sales this year, but September has always been the peak sales season. On a year-on-year basis, sales in September decreased by 5%, while cumulative sales from January to September decreased by nearly 3%. In contrast, the export performance of passenger cars remains strong. Despite the escalating trade disputes between China and Western countries, passenger car exports in September still increased by 22% year-on-year.
According to relevant reports, the sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger car market accounted for nearly 55% in September. Due to the government doubling the subsidy amount for car trade ins, the number of applications for car scrapping and renewal subsidies surged in September, indicating that car sales will experience accelerated growth before the expiration of the trade in subsidy policy at the end of December. However, the severe decline in the real estate industry, sluggish job market, and volatile financial market are still suppressing consumer confidence.
--Other Asian regions--
The seasonally adjusted annualized sales in the Japanese market remained sluggish in September, with a result of 4.5 million vehicles per year, which was basically the same as last month. Affected by the issue of vehicle certification violations, the market supply of related car companies (especially Toyota and Daihatsu) is insufficient, and sales for the month continue to be constrained as a result. In addition, the bad weather conditions also disrupted the sales market. A series of strong typhoons at the end of August and rainstorm in many places in Japan in September affected the logistics transportation and the customer flow of the dealership. Economically, adjusted for inflation, real wages have once again declined, suppressing consumers' purchasing power.
The sales volume in the Korean market has achieved growth for the second consecutive month, with seasonally adjusted annualized sales rising to 1.68 million vehicles per year. However, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales average from January to September was only 1.58 million vehicles per year, indicating that the Korean market's sales this year may reach the lowest level since 2013. Due to the early release of passenger car sales due to last year's temporary reduction policy on consumption tax for passenger cars, as well as being dragged down by high household debt, sales in the Korean market have remained sluggish this year. Due to the long update cycle of vehicle models and high car loan interest rates, the sales of light commercial vehicles in South Korea have also performed poorly. However, Hyundai Motor, Renault Korea, and KG Mobility all achieved year-on-year sales growth for the month.
--South America--
In September, Brazil's light vehicle sales continued their excellent performance since the beginning of the year, increasing by 19% year-on-year to nearly 223,000 units. Thanks to strong sales performance, the country's seasonally adjusted annualized sales for the month surged from 2.45 million vehicles per year in August to 2.71 million vehicles per year, reaching the highest level since February 2020. At least from the performance of a single month, the market has recovered to the level before the COVID-19 outbreak. The inventory of light-duty garages seems to have reached a certain level of stability, with no change in the number of available inventory days in September compared to the previous month, still at 34 days.
In September, Argentina's light vehicle sales increased by 30% year-on-year to 41,000 units. Due to some of the reform measures implemented by the new government that have been ongoing for some time, market performance seems to have been positively affected, resulting in slow growth in sales in the country in the second half of this year. Argentina's seasonally adjusted annualized sales for the month also achieved strong growth, breaking the 400,000 vehicle/year mark for the third consecutive month. This result is already ideal in the current economic situation in the country.
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