According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of wood pulp has shown a fluctuating downward trend recently. On October 21st, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,234 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the average price of 6,240 RMB/ton on October 13th. On October 21st, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,738 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.67% compared to the average price of 4,770 RMB/ton on October 13th.

On the supply side: Currently, due to the weakening demand in the European market, pulp inventories have accumulated significantly, which has a negative impact on the valuation of pulp in US dollars. However, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets shows a positive trend, and the upward space for needle needles is limited. With the weakening of external demand, the supply of goods from pulp mills to China may increase in the future, and there is a possibility of further increase in domestic imports in the future. In addition, the continuous release of new domestic production capacity and the increase in market pulp supply have exerted certain pressure on pulp prices.

In terms of demand: Currently, the spot market for pulp itself, as well as the production, sales, inventory, and price performance of various papers, are generally weak. However, the significant warming of the atmosphere under policy stimulus has not yet affected the downstream mentality and actual demand for pulp. Downstream paper mills mainly consume raw material inventory in the early stage, and the game situation between supply and demand remains unchanged.

Domestic port data: The sample inventory of mainstream ports in China shows a trend of destocking. As of October 17, 2024, the sample inventory of pulp in mainstream ports in China was 1.65 million tons, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.019 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared to the previous period; The inventory of Changshu Port was 468,000 tons, a decrease of 6.8% compared to the previous period.

In terms of futures: Recently, pulp futures prices have risen. As of October 21st, the opening price of the main contract SP2501 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,870 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,890 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,902 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 0.82%. The trading volume was 265,000 lots, and the position held was 127,638 lots.

Business Society wood pulp analysts believe that with the arrival of year-end e-commerce promotions, terminal consumption has slightly improved, which may provide a certain boost to pulp prices. However, the price increase of paper is not smooth, suppressing the overall rebound space. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will mainly follow macroeconomic fluctuations.

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