According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market recently (10.12-10.24) showed a narrow consolidation. As of October 24th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17,184 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from 17,238 RMB/ton on October 12th. Recently, raw material prices have fallen slightly from high levels; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to slowly decline; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but have some resistance to high priced sources, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the natural rubber market at a high level.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high with a slight decline. As of October 24th, the price of Thai glue is 74.00 baht/kg, which is lower than the price of 79.50 baht/kg on October 10th; As of October 24th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 18,600 RMB/ton, a decrease from the price of 19,300 RMB/ton on October 10th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of October 20, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 402,500 tons, a decrease of 1.95% compared to the previous period.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, downstream production of all steel tires is running at a low level, and downstream inquiries are mostly based on demand, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. However, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high priced goods sources. As of October 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%.

Market forecast: The current high supply prices of raw materials both domestically and internationally are expected to experience a slight decline; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian is showing a slow trend of destocking; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term.

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