Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices had fluctuated narrowly this week. As of the weekend, the price of 20 #, 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was quoted at 4,360 RMB/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week and down 4.8% year-on-year.

Analysis review

The price of upstream tube billets had slightly decreased, and the market price of 20 # hot-rolled tube billets was quoted at 3,320-3,660 RMB/ton. This week, the black futures market fell first and then rose, downstream shipments were not smooth, and demand for tube blanks decreased.

As of October 25th, the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent. With the weather turning cold, the demand for seamless tubes had significantly declined, while production continues to increase. It is expected that seamless tube prices will continue to operate weakly. On the news front, starting from 20:00 on October 22, 2024, Liaocheng City initiated a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather. The specific lifting time will be notified separately. Multiple cities had issued environmental protection notices, and some areas in Tangshan and Tianjin have also implemented production restrictions, which have to some extent eased inventory pressure. With the start of production restrictions in the north, it indicates a shift towards the traditional off-season. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. The market is concerned about the fundamentals of seamless tubes.

Market outlook

It is expected that seamless tubes will remain weak and stable in the short term.

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