Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the price of 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,157.5 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase to 4,342.5 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.45%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.03%.

Analysis review

Before the National Day holiday, the government released various macro favorable policies such as mortgage interest rates, interest rate cuts, and reserve requirement ratio cuts. During the National Day holiday, seamless tube prices quickly rose, and after the holiday, seamless tube prices gradually returned to rationality.

In terms of raw materials: In October, the price of tube billets slightly decreased, and the market price of 20 # hot-rolled tube billets was quoted at 3,460-3,560 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 180 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month.

In terms of demand, the daily average transaction volume of seamless tubes in China in October was 14,079 tons, a decrease of 3.08% compared to the same period last year with 14,527 tons/day. The overall demand was still weak. We are about to enter the off-season of demand in November, and some northern regions may have the phenomenon of rushing to work before the cold weather, and demand may slightly recover. But it is difficult for the southern region to improve, and it is basically maintaining the current lukewarm state.

In terms of exports: In September, China's seamless tube exports were 475,400 tons, an increase of 14.17% month on month and 2.19% year-on-year; From January to September, China exported a total of 3.9885 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year decrease of 8.21%. In September, China imported 12,300 tons of seamless tubes, a month on month increase of 66.22% and a year-on-year increase of 33.70%; From January to September, China imported a total of 87,700 tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 9.22%.

Market outlook

In summary, the policy was in a window period, and there was temporarily no major contradiction between supply and demand. However, the supply-demand contradiction of seamless tubes was beginning to emerge. With the opening of production restrictions in the north, it indicated a shift towards the traditional off-season. The demand side is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. The market is concerned about the fundamentals of seamless tubes. It is expected that the seamless tube market will experience narrow fluctuations and adjustments in the later stage.

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