According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market continues to decline. From October 8th to 30th, MTBE prices fell from 5,875 RMB/ton to 5,287 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 10.00% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 23.92%.

After the National Day holiday, the MTBE market situation fell again, and the conflict between Iran and Israel did not escalate further. International crude oil closed down, and some manufacturers who had planned to shut down in the early stage still did not shut down, and some manufacturers started production. The supply of resources further increased, while gasoline demand gradually weakened, and MTBE market prices fluctuated and fell.

In mid October, the domestic MTBE market showed an overall volatile downward trend. In terms of international crude oil, the risk of conflict between Iran and Israel has significantly weakened, and OPEC and the International Energy Agency have successively lowered their global crude oil demand growth forecasts. The closing price of crude oil has continued to decline, which has greatly suppressed the mentality of industry players. However, the demand for gasoline terminals is weak, and industry players maintain on-demand purchase of MTBE, causing the MTBE market price to continue to decline.

In late October, after a brief rebound in the MTBE market, transactions cooled down and the atmosphere noticeably weakened. Low price offers increased, and the domestic MTBE market weakened and consolidated.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices fluctuated weakly in October, and the conflict between Israel and Iran first tightened and then loosened, ending calmly. The huge expectation gap led to a concentration of traders selling, which in turn triggered a sharp drop in oil prices. At present, the market has returned to a state of pressure, and geopolitical support has weakened. Some industry players still have doubts about whether the demand outlook in Asia can improve.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, as temperatures in northern regions decrease and private car travel increases, retail gas station shipments remain stable. Most gas station merchants maintain medium to high inventory levels for procurement and sales, and operators may maintain their demand for MTBE or essential purchases. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the construction of Jinjiang Oil and Chemical Plant and Shandong Chengtai Plant has affected production, while the construction of Yulong Petrochemical's new plant has led to an increase in plant operating rate. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

On October 29th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market decreased by $5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $714.49-716.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $13/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $816.74-817.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $2.76/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $708.78-709.14/ton (200.13-200.23 cents/gallon).

In the future forecast, the supply of MTBE resources will increase slightly, but demand will be weak, and manufacturers will accumulate inventory. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

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