According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of domestically refined gasoline and diesel in October was differentiated. As of the end of the month, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 7,201 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.28% from the beginning price of 7,523 RMB/ton; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,798.6 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.26% from the beginning of the month price of 6,521 RMB/ton.
In terms of cost: The crude oil market is volatile, and there is little change in the cost aspect
International oil prices fluctuated in October, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had an impact, which is positive news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In mid to late October, oil prices began to fall, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market. Overall, the price of crude oil market has not changed much, and overall fluctuations are the main factor, with little impact on the domestic refined oil market.
In terms of supply: Shandong's local refining industry starts to rise, supply side increases
In October, some maintenance facilities in Shandong were restarted, and the operating rate of Shandong's refineries slightly increased. The average operating rate of Shandong's refineries was around 58%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remained at around 82%. The operating rate of refineries continued to rise, and the supply of refined oil products increased, which had a certain negative impact on the trend of gasoline and diesel.
In terms of demand: The price trend of FAW diesel varies depending on the demand
In terms of gasoline, the holiday benefits have led to delisting, and gasoline terminal consumption has returned to residents' daily short distance travel as the main trend. The support for basic needs has weakened, and intermediaries are replenishing their inventory according to demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, resulting in a decline in the gasoline market in October. In terms of diesel, after the opening of the Bohai Sea, the increase in demand for marine fuel has provided some support for the market. In addition, the previous increase in agricultural diesel has led to a slight improvement in outdoor project construction, resulting in a decline in diesel inventory. Traders and terminal enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and overall, the trend of diesel prices is rising.
Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the price trend of the gasoline market has declined; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches and diesel usage gradually increases, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market may rise in the short term.
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