Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of soda ash first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1,614 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1,584 RMB/ton. The price decreased by 30 RMB/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.86%.
On October 31, the light soda ash commodity index was 81.23 points, unchanged from the previous day, a decrease of 57.04% from the cycle's highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 28.63% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
Analysis review
According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the soda ash market had been consolidating and operating this month. Returning from the National Day holiday, due to the strong rise in the downstream glass market, the price of soda ash had been boosted by a narrow upward trend. However, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity was high, and the market supply was sufficient. Downstream consumers mainly consumed inventory, and their enthusiasm for entering the market was not high. They followed up more on demand, resulting in poor soda ash shipments and insufficient market transactions. Under the game of supply and demand, soda ash prices are weakly declining. As of October 31, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in the East China region was around 1,420-1,600 RMB/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in Central China ws around 1,370-1,600 RMB/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, glass prices had shown a strong upward trend this month, with an average market price of 13.45 RMB/square meter at the beginning of the month and 15.95 RMB/square meter at the end of the month, an increase of 18.59%. The glass spot market had risen widely, downstream demand had improved, and there was a significant destocking in the market. The trading atmosphere in the market had increased, and the glass market had risen strongly.
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price comparison index of soda ash and glass commodities on October 31 was 84.55 points, unchanged from the previous day, a decrease of 24.76% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 9.61% from the lowest point of 77.14 points on August 16, 2023. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)
Market outlook
According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the recent price trend of light soda ash was mainly weak and stable. Although the downstream glass market price was strong, the demand for soda ash was limited. In addition, the high inventory of soda ash put great pressure on enterprise sales. It is expected that the soda ash price will continue to consolidate weakly in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.
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