Price trend

The acetone market saw a narrow upward trend in October. According to the analysis system of SunSirs, the national acetone market quoted an average of 5,865 RMB/ton on October 1st, rising to 6,005 RMB/ton on October 31st, an increase of 2.39%. Looking at the acetone market in East China, it reported an average of 5,680 RMB/ton on October 1st, rising to 5,780 RMB/ton on October 31st, an increase of 3.35%.

Analysis review

In the first half of the month, the concentration of port cargo increased, and the mentality of traders was positive, which was boosted. The offer was pushed up, but there was no intention to lower it. Downstream sporadic terminal factories made purchases, and the trading atmosphere improved. In the second half of the month, port inventory continued to decline, and the supply of goods was mainly concentrated in the hands of a few traders. Traders had a high upward sentiment, and the average price at the end of the month exceeded 6,000 RMB/ton.

In terms of supply, as of the end of the month, the inventory at Jiangyin Port was 20,500 tons, including 18,000 tons in Huaxi and 2,500 tons in Hengyang.

In terms of equipment: Jilin Petrochemical's 150,000 tons/year phenol ketone unit will be shut down for maintenance starting from March 4th, and is expected to undergo maintenance for about a year; Jiangsu Ruiheng 650,000 tons/year phenol ketone plant was shut down from October 9th to 14th; Changchun Chemical's 480,000 tons/year phenol ketone plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th, with an estimated 45 days.

From the demand side, the top two downstream industries had relatively stable production, with bisphenol A production at 60% and acetone cyanohydrin MMA production at 50%. The overall production of bisphenol A and MMA downstream was stable, the export orders for IPA was limited and domestic facilities maintained a level close to 50%.

Market outlook

It is expected to remain stable and rise in November. Upstream, the external environment was weak, and the cost support was weak. On the supply side, Sinopec Mitsui will shut down for maintenance in mid to late November. Changchun Chemical Plant is expected to resume operation in mid November, and Dongying New Plant is expected to have goods for export in November. The expected import volume is between 32,000 and 35,000 tons, and SunSirs expects the market to steadily advance in November. The overall monthly average price may be higher than that in October, and the market price in East China is around 5,700-6,150 RMB/ton.

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