Market Overview:

The phenomenon of supply differentiation between the north and south regions still existed within the week, and the supply in the East China region was still tight. With the support of cost, the domestic vinyl cyanide market was fluctuating upwards.

Analysis review

On the supply side: During the week, a 130,000 ton production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 1 # vinyl cyanide plant was recently shut down for maintenance. As of December 1st, the remaining two lines were operating, and the overall load had dropped to less than 50%. The capacity utilization rate in the East China region had decreased, and the supply was tight. The northern market was basically operating normally, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic vinyl cyanide industry had reached 73.42%, an increase of 0.02% compared to the same period last week. The total output of the factory during the week was 67,900 tons, and the inventory of vinyl cyanide enterprises was 49,400 tons. As of December 1st, there was no inventory pressure in the industry.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong's market fluctuated at a high level, with the mainstream closing reference being 6,870-7,000 RMB/ton. As of December 1st, the inventory of propylene enterprises was mostly at a low level. With the rise of propylene prices to a high level, the downstream sentiment of gradually increasing prices had weakened, which may support or weaken the price trend.

In terms of demand, the utilization rate of downstream ABS production capacity had increased to 68.82%, an increase of 7.32% compared to the same period last week at 61.5%, indicating an increase in demand for vinyl cyanide.

Market outlook

As of December 1st, the supply differentiation between the North and South regions continued, and the domestic vinyl cyanide market is expected to remain strong. The supply in the East China region was still tight, and the current industry inventory was not under pressure. The main manufacturers will continue to raise prices. However, with abundant supply in the north and overall supply-demand balance in the country, there are also obstacles for continued market growth.

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