The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on November 6th. The retail price of refined oil in this round is about to be lowered. The retail price of refined oil in 2024 has experienced nine upward adjustments, eight downward adjustments, and four stranded adjustments. The crude oil change rate remains negative during the cycle, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will encounter the "ninth" downward adjustment.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 5th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.99 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.53 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC's production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. The long short game is taking place, and overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains negative. As of the 6th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -2.01%, corresponding to a reduction of 145 RMB per ton of gasoline and 140 RMB per ton of diesel, equivalent to a reduction of 0.11 RMB per liter of 92 # gasoline, 0.12 RMB per liter of 95 # gasoline, and 0.12 RMB per liter of 0 # diesel.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rates of both main and local refineries have increased to a certain extent. Some maintenance facilities in Shandong have been restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 59%, and the operating rate of main refineries in the country has risen to around 84%. The operating rate of local refineries continues to rise, and the supply of refined oil products has increased. Intermediaries are replenishing inventory as needed. Recently, there has been no holiday support, and travel has returned to normal. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, resulting in a sluggish gasoline market.
In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side diesel market has increased, and in terms of demand, the increase in demand for marine fuel after the opening of the Bohai Sea has provided some support for the market. In addition, the previous increase in agricultural diesel has slightly improved, and the current outdoor project construction has slightly improved. Diesel inventory has declined, and traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. Overall, the trend of diesel prices has risen.
Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and the extended production cuts by oil producing countries have boosted the oil market. Overall, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the price trend of the gasoline market has declined; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches and diesel usage gradually increases, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market may rise in the short term.
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