According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of softwood pulp first decreased and then increased last week, while the price of hardwood pulp continued to decline. On November 8th, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,240 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on November 1st. On November 8th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,590 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.08% compared to the average price of 4,640 RMB/ton on October 20th.
On the supply side, there has been a significant increase in overseas broad-leaved pulp production capacity this year, while European port inventories continue to accumulate month on month. There will also be a large amount of production in the second half of the year domestically, resulting in significant overall supply pressure. With the weakening of external demand, the supply of pulp to China from pulp mills may increase in the future, and there is a possibility of a rebound in domestic imports in the future. Therefore, the increase in market supply has made the rise in domestic wood pulp prices weak.
On the demand side: The profitability of domestic downstream enterprises is still in a sluggish state, and downstream paper mills mainly consume raw material inventory in the early stage. The game situation between supply and demand remains unchanged. Although there have been frequent price increase letters from paper mills recently, the increase in paper prices has not been smooth, and downstream paper mills have experienced difficulties in shipping, resulting in a decrease in raw material procurement. Currently, inquiries are the main focus, and the transaction ratio is relatively low.
Domestic port data: The sample inventory of mainstream ports in China continues to show a trend of accumulation. As of November 7, 2024, the sample inventory of pulp in mainstream ports in China was 1.75 million tons, an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.062 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous period; The inventory at Changshu Port was 498,000 tons, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous period.
Futures: Pulp futures continue to fluctuate sideways. As of November 8th, the opening price of the main contract SP2501 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,840 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,856 RMB/ton, the highest price was 5,900 RMB/ton, the daily increase was 0.97%, the trading volume was 272,600 lots, and the position was 139,393 lots.
The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that there has been a lot of price fluctuations in the wood pulp market recently. Due to the lack of obvious positive support in the market, most industry players are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will remain in a range of fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.
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