Price trend

This week (11.11-15), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.69%. As of November 15th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region was between 2,600-2,800 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

The main reason was that the maintenance equipment had resumed work one after another, and the supply side had shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply had significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume had dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 RMB/ton. Distributors mainly underreported shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, agricultural demand was still in the off-season, industrial demand remained rigid, and the overall demand side was bearish.

Market outlook

In the recent off-season for agricultural demand procurement, industrial demand followed suit, and the supply was sufficient. However, the supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north are fluctuating or tightening supply with low prices. On the other hand, the export of liquid ammonia may improve. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, while industrial demand urgently needs to follow up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, and there is a possibility of a price rebound.

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