Domestic methanol market rebounded and began to rise. According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic methanol market on April 1 was 1,600 RMB/ ton, and the price of domestic methanol market on April 8 was 1,715 RMB/ ton, an increase of 7.19%. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell 13.38% month on month and 29.37% year on year.
Market Analysis
Products: the international oil price has been revised back again, and some MTOs have been overhauled. The attitude of the operators is different. Some upstream enterprises in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia raised their selling prices to 1,450 RMB/ ton or above, traders operated cautiously. Methanol market in North China rose and trading was fair. Shandong central Shandong Province reported an increase of 30-50 RMB/ ton at 1,660-1,710 RMB/ ton, and Lunan reported an increase of 60-70 RMB/ ton to 1,630 RMB/ ton near cash exchange, with higher plate surface, as well as load reduction or planned shutdown of some devices, the mentality of the operators was supported. Methanol market in Northwest China rose with a good trading atmosphere. Last week, no guidance price was issued in Northwest China. Some factories in the north line of Inner Mongolia reported a rise to 1,460 RMB/ ton of ex factory cash, and the shipment was to be observed.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is rising steadily, with an increase of 50-80 RMB/ ton. The main production area of upstream methanol market delivered good products last week, and the price continued to rise this week. In the upstream methanol up drive, formaldehyde market was pushed up. In Shandong Province, some enterprises carry out short-term safety inspection and their stock is limited. The atmosphere of on-site trading is still general, and the buying mood is slightly rational.
Acetic acid: the decline of domestic acetic acid market continued. During the holiday period, spot manufacturers continued to adjust prices, driving the market to trade lower today. At present, the domestic acetic acid plant production is stable, the stock quantity of each manufacturer is high, the market demand continues to be rational, the bad situation that the supply exceeds the demand in acetic acid market is difficult to ease, and the market is in a passive stage of weak continuation.
DME: the price of domestic DME is stable and bullish, while the price of main production areas is rising obviously. At present, the quotation in Henan Province is 2,590-3,000 RMB/ ton, and the terminal purchase mentality is more active. In recent days, crude oil prices rebounded, providing support for LPG prices. After the terminal continued to wait and see, there was a certain demand for replenishment. However, xinlianxin and Baoma's low-load production led to a decrease in market supply; resulting in a situation in which some enterprises' supply of goods fell short of demand. The price of DME was stable and hard, and the prices in Henan's main production areas were increased in varying degrees.
Market Forecast
SunSirs’ point of view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continued to fall, some of which fell to the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money. The inventory pressure of most factories in the main production area is not large, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, global COVID-19 triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. Port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the shortage of storage capacity. After Iran's gas limit was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in early April. There is still a relatively centralized plan for import cargo, and the port tank capacity is too tight, so it is not ruled out that some cargo may arrive later. The methanol analysts of SunSirs expect that the domestic methanol market will rebound slightly in the short term, and the port will tend to be weak and volatile.
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