Price trend
In April, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. According to the monitoring price of SunSirs, the domestic butadiene market price on April 1 was 5,127 RMB/ton, and on April 8, the domestic butadiene market price was 3,867 RMB/ton, down 24.57%, 38.18% month on month, down 51.11% year on year. At present, the market price of butadiene has reached a new low in nearly 10 years.
Analysis review
Product: The domestic butadiene market fell broadly, with Sinopec's supply price reduced by 500 RMB/ton to 4,000 RMB/ton, and North Huajin's bidding base price reduced to 35,10 RMB/ton, but the transaction was still not smooth. Affected by low price ocean going cargo and abundant domestic spot supply, the market continued to be bearish. The market center of gravity is expected to continue to decline due to the short expectation and supply side price reduction. For sporadic offers in Shandong, the reference price was 3,700-3,800 RMB/ton. The price in East China market was kept at 3,600-3,800 RMB/ton, and some offers were 3,800-4,000 RMB/ton.
In terms of enterprises, the 100,000-ton / year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Jiangsu Silbang was restarted on March 30. The unit is currently operating normally, and the quotation fell by 800 RMB/ton to 4,200 RMB/ton; Inner Mongolia Jiutai's 70,000-ton / year plant restarted operation and the goods were sold normally. The price was reduced by 500 RMB/ton to 3,400 RMB/ton. Dalian Hengli's 140,000-ton / year plant is operating steadily, and the supply of goods is normally exported. The quotation fell by 300 RMB/ton to 3,510 RMB/ton.
Industrial chain: Styrene-butadiene rubber: The domestic mainstream styrene-butadiene supply price is stable and the market price has risen. The Qilu 1502 mainstream offer price in Shandong is 7,800-7,900 RMB/ton; the oil rubber 1712 mainstream 7,000 RMB/ton. Shanghai rubber futures rose, and the news cheered the mood of the industry; the supply price of raw material butadiene fell, and the theoretical profit of styrene butadiene production enterprises enlarged again. Driven by the rise of crude oil and Shanghai Rubber futures, the upside down price disappeared in the market, and the companies generally added 100-300 RMB/ton to offer and wait for the trading market; the inquiry atmosphere was fair, most of which was for the middlemen to replenish the market, while the terminal remained on the wait-and-see, and the principle of "use as you go" remained unchanged.
Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has not been adjusted, and the range of market offer has been boosted. With the improvement of inquiry, the price of the offer has been gradually increased, while the price of the low offer has been reduced. Only a few private enterprises have delivered goods at a price lower than that of the petrochemical factory. The overall offer atmosphere has improved. The middlemen are active in the market, and the downstream factories just need to replenish their positions.
Market outlook
The supply of overseas ocean going cargo is abundant, and the supply and demand of domestic butadiene spot continue to be weak. With the prices of Sinopec and other suppliers continue to decline, the overall market continues to decline. The short-term peripheral information is difficult to transmit to the butadiene spot market, and there is no obvious positive support from market supply and demand. The butadiene analysts of SunSirs predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to be weak, and it is suggested to pay attention to the guidance of the internal and external trading news.
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