According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from November 25th to 29th, MTBE prices first fell and then rose from 5,425 RMB/ton to 5,445 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.37% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.92%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.19%. After the price rose to a high level in the early stage, the manufacturer's shipment slowed down significantly, and under the pressure of increased inventory, the manufacturer offered discounts for shipment. After offering discounts, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was attracted, and there is still a certain demand for gasoline, so the transactions gradually improved, and the domestic MTBE market situation has been pushed up.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: Israel and Hezbollah have officially reached a ceasefire agreement, the situation in the Middle East has further eased, and the recent strong trend of the US dollar. As of November 28th, the Brent crude oil benchmark price of SunSirs is $72.32 per barrel.
From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the increase in private car travel rate in winter provides support for terminal demand, and refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices. With the completion of some orders, the enthusiasm of operators may be temporarily suspended, but there will still be some gasoline orders to support it at the beginning of next month. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: Shandong Chengtai has plans to start construction, and resource supply is expected to increase narrowly. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on November 28th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.2/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $691.49-693.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $6/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $817.49-817.99/ton. On Thanksgiving, the MTBE market in the United States is closed.
The future forecast for the MTBE market may see sporadic slight adjustments, with little room for fluctuation. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience narrow consolidation in the short term.
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