According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and consolidating. From November 1st to 29th, the MTBE price first fell and then rose from 5,370 RMB/ton to 5,445 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.40% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 17.19%.
At the beginning of the month, the MTBE market continued to be weak compared to the previous month. In mid month, the domestic MTBE market prices fluctuated and rose. As the delivery date of gasoline shipments approached, the enthusiasm of industry players for purchasing relevant gasoline raw materials significantly increased. MTBE manufacturers followed suit and pushed up prices. Coupled with the gradual shutdown of some facilities, the favorable trend of reduced resource supply began to emerge, resulting in a significant increase in MTBE prices.
At the end of the month, the domestic MTBE market was mainly experiencing sporadic adjustments, with relatively frequent price fluctuations but limited space. The demand for gasoline terminals was still acceptable, and industry players had a certain degree of enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. MTBE manufacturers often offered high prices for shipments. After the price rose to a high level, the cautious mentality of operators increased, and the market situation was mainly consolidated.
As the end of the month approaches, manufacturers' shipments have significantly slowed down after prices rose to a high level in the early stage, and inventory pressure has increased, causing manufacturers to offer discounts on shipments. After offering discounts, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was attracted, and there is still a certain demand for gasoline, so the transactions gradually improved, and the domestic MTBE market situation has been pushed up.
In terms of cost, international crude oil prices first fell and then rose in November, showing a slight downward trend overall, and the average price has decreased compared to October. OPEC+officially decided to postpone production cuts until the end of December, as Hurricane Rafael poses a risk to crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region of the United States and international oil prices remain high. In the middle of the month, the market is concerned that Trump's victory may push up US crude oil production. OPEC's monthly report has lowered demand growth rates, and the market remains concerned about poor demand prospects. Coupled with the easing of the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices have fallen. In the last ten days, the Russia-Ukraine conflict was once intensified and pushed up potential supply risks, but the Lebanon Israel ceasefire agreement was officially reached, the situation in the Middle East was further eased, and international oil prices stabilized after rising.
From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the increase in private car travel rate in winter provides support for terminal demand, and refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices. With the completion of some orders, the enthusiasm of operators may be temporarily suspended, but there will still be some gasoline orders to support it at the beginning of next month. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the construction of Jinjiang Oil and Chemical Plant and Shandong Chengtai Plant has affected production, while the construction of Yulong Petrochemical's new plant has led to an increase in plant operating rate. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on November 28th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.2/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $691.49-693.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $6/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $817.49-817.99/ton. On Thanksgiving, the MTBE market in the United States is closed.
In the future forecast, the MTBE market may experience sporadic slight adjustments, with little room for fluctuation. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will consolidate narrowly in the short term.
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