According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend last week (11.25-29). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5,130 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.27% during the week.
Since November, PVC prices have continued to fall. Last week, due to a lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, PVC prices continued to decline, and as of the weekend, prices have slightly stopped falling. On the one hand, due to the low operation of upstream crude oil prices, ethylene has shown weak performance. In addition, the futures market has fallen, and the spot PVC market has been linked to a downward trend. Coupled with loose supply and demand, the operating rate of manufacturers has generally increased in the past two months, with over half of them operating at full capacity. Supply pressure is prominent, and dealer offers have also shown a bearish trend. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5,050-5,200 RMB/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since November, the price of calcium carbide has stopped rising and mainly operated at a high level. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since November has been zero. Overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week was weak, with limited support, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.
The PVC analyst from SunSirs believes that in the short term, the weak balance between PVC supply and demand is the main factor, and the operating rate of manufacturers remains high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory are high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.
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