Price trend
In November, dichloromethane rose to a high for the year. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, in mid November, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province rose to 3,180 RMB/ton, an increase of 20% from the beginning of the month and 32.36% from the beginning of the year; As of the end of November, the average price of bulk dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2,990 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase of 12.83%.
Analysis review
In early November, the rapid growth of dichloromethane led to a decrease in production load on the supply side, an increase in raw material prices on the cost side, and a smooth flow of traders due to insufficient inventory, resulting in the dichloromethane market reaching a new high for the year. At high prices, the market had light shipments and inventory was under pressure. Manufacturers were considering the negative factors of weak demand and increased supply, and slightly lowered their quotations. At the end of the month, there was an increase in enterprise maintenance, and manufacturers adjusted their quotations accordingly, resulting in a good market transaction atmosphere and proactive replenishment.
On the supply side: It is understood that several large factories stopped for maintenance and low load operation during the month, resulting in tight market supply, which strongly supports the upward trend of dichloromethane market.
In terms of raw materials, the market price of methanol was mainly rising, and some production enterprises were limiting their shipments, which was driving up the price of methanol in mainland China. The inventory had significantly decreased, but it was still at a high level. As of November 29th, the spot price of methanol in SunSirs was 2,544 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.55% from the beginning of the month. The market for liquid chlorine in Shandong continued to rise, with increased confidence in business transactions and a stable bullish outlook.
In terms of demand, the market price of refrigerant R32 had risen, with little remaining annual quota, and spot prices continued to be tight. The circulation market was digesting inventory, and production shutdown and maintenance plans were clear. Some downstream home appliance manufacturers were facing insufficient quotas. The supply shortage trend in December was obvious, and offers are expected to continue to break through the previous high. Order prices in the first quarter are still expected to rise. Other applications should maintain a strong demand for purchasing and restock at low prices.
Market outlook
SunSirs’ analysts believe that the maintenance of large factories was favorable, supported by the upward trend of raw materials, and the demand side was in urgent need of procurement. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.
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