Price trend
On April 8, the melamine commodity index was 55.91, the same as the previous day, a record low in the cycle, down 44.09% from the peak of 100.00 on September 18, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Analysis review
Product: The melamine market has been operating weakly recently. According to the data of SunSirs' list, the average price of melamine companies on April 8 was 5,200 RMB/ton, which was a decrease of 2.5% compared with April 1. On the 8th, mainstream domestic melamine market prices were around 4,600 ~ 5,400 RMB/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of the melamine market in Xinjiang is around RMB 4,600 / ton; the mainstream quotation of the melamine market in Sichuan is around RMB 4,900 / ton; the mainstream quotation of the melamine market in Henan is around RMB 4,800 / ton. The mainstream offer price of melamine in Shandong is around 5,000 RMB/ton.
Industrial chain: On April 8, the mainstream ex-factory price of small particle urea in Shandong was temporarily stable: Rising Chemical's quotation was 1,700 RMB/ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable; Mingshui Chemical's quotation was 1,740 RMB/ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable; the price was temporarily stable. The offer for Yangmei PingYuan Chemical was 1,700 RMB/ton, and the offer was temporarily stable. On the whole, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable on August 8, and the actual transaction price was subject to negotiation.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, on April 8, 2020, there were 16 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector in the commodity price rise and fall list, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities for the increase were acetone (9.87%), bisphenol A (3.60%), and phthalic anhydride (3.19%). There were 14 kinds of commodities that fell sequentially, and 3 kinds of commodities that fell more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the monitored goods in this sector; the top 3 products that fell were hydrochloric acid (-32.89%) and ethylene (-6.96%) , Butadiene (-6.32%). The average daily increase or decrease was -0.27%.
Market outlook
Melamine analysts in SunSirs believe that the recent upstream urea market is mainly stable, with limited impact on melamine. At present, the supply of goods in the melamine market is sufficient, but the demand side is sluggish, the market supply and demand are sharply contradictory, and under sales pressure, the focus of market negotiations is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be mainly in a weak position, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and transactions in the mainstream market.
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