Price trend

This week (12-9-12), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong had not yet escaped the downward trend, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.32%.

Analysis review

The main reason was the increase in supply pressure, the gradual restoration of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the increase in manufacturer operating rates, coupled with the sluggish urea market, some manufacturers had switched to ammonia, which further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 RMB/ton. Distributors mainly underreported shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, agricultural demand was still in the off-season, industrial demand remained rigid, and the overall demand side was bearish. As of December 13th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2,600-2,750 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Due to seasonal reasons, fertilizer procurement was off-season, downstream operating rates have significantly decreased, industrial demand has followed suit, supply was sufficient, and later supply pressure may not be resolved for a long time. But the imagination of regional differentiation in the later stage of the market may become increasingly prominent. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices. On the other hand, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and there may be a shortage of local supply. Considering all factors, the price of liquid ammonia may still be difficult to improve next week, but some regions may stop falling and stabilize. Local differentiation may bring about price fluctuations.

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