On April 10, the coke commodity index was 79.44, unchanged from the previous day, down 41.17% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 129.26% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Trend Analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of domestic coke market was stable last week. As of Friday, the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Shanghai are 1,680 RMB/ton and 1,740 RMB/ton respectively; in Xuzhou are 1,650 RMB/ ton and 1,720 RMB/ ton; in Weifang, Shandong are 1,640 RMB/ ton and 1,700 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province are 1,540 RMB/ ton and 1,590 RMB/ ton; the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province are 1,580 RMB/ ton and 1,640 RMB/ ton; in Shenyang, Liaoning Province are 1,610 RMB/ ton and 1,670 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province are 1,700 RMB/ ton and 1,800 RMB/ tonrespectively. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province are 1,630 RMB/ ton and 1,680 RMB/ ton; in Tianjin are 1,650 RMB/ ton and 1,750 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan Province, Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou province and Erdos coke market are 1,780 RMB/ ton, 1,920 RMB/ ton and 1,300 RMB/tonrespectively. The port trade of primary metallurgical coke is about 1,900 RMB/ ton, of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is about 1,800 RMB/ ton, and of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1,700 RMB/ ton.

Import and Export: according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 360,000 tons of coke from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons, or 74.21%. The export volume of coke in January February was $90.48 million.

Products: last week, the price of domestic coke market fell slightly. On Tuesday, some coking enterprises reduced the price by about 50 RMB/ ton. So far, most coking enterprises had fluctuated near the profit and loss line. The enterprise started relatively stable. Some coking enterprises in Henan Province had limited production. The regional operating rate was below 30%. The carbon supply was stable and the sales situation was normal. As of Friday, the main transaction price of quasi first-class wet quenching coke in Shanxi was between 1,500-1,600 RMB/ ton. In terms of ports, most traders were cautious and their trading wass relatively poor. At present, the quotation of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in port area is kept at 1,700 RMB/ ton.

Market Forecast

According to the coke analysts of SunSirs, at present, the coking enterprises are hovering near the profit and loss line. The demand for coke from the downstream steel plants is fair, with limited downward space and stable in the short term.

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