Price trend

This week, the operating rate of the vinyl cyanide industry had increased, supply had increased, and some production enterprises had continuously lowered their factory prices, resulting in a slight decline in overall market prices. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports was 9,600-9,750 RMB/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market was around 9,350-9,550 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

On the supply side: During the week, the 130,000 tons of vinyl cyanide plant that Jihua (Jieyang) stopped for maintenance on December 3rd was restarted on December 13th; A 130,000 ton vinyl cyanide production line in Silbang, Jiangsu has resumed operation. As of December 20th, two and a half sets of equipment were in operation, with an overall start-up rate of over 60%. As of December 20th, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic vinyl cyanide industry reached 71.65%, an increase of 3.38% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output is 66300 tons, with a slight increase in supply. However, whether there will be a significant increase in supply in the later stage is still uncertain, and the industry inventory will continue to be low in the short term. As of December 20, 2024, the inventory of vinyl cyanide plants was 29,100 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons from last week.

In terms of cost, the domestic propylene market as a whole showed a narrow range of fluctuations this week, with the mainstream closing in Shandong referring to 6,880-7,030 RMB/ton. The cost support was average.

In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries had not changed much, and overall demand was relatively stable. Among them, the ABS capacity utilization rate is 71.70%, which was the same as last week.

Market outlook

As of December 20th, the domestic vinyl cyanide market was deadlocked and weak. As the end of the month approaching, attention was paid to the release of factory settlement prices. There was still an expectation of a decline in spot prices, but the short-term space may be limited. As of December 20th, there was a continuous differentiation in supply between the north and south, and the supply in the East China region was still not abundant. At the same time, the industry inventory was low, and the market still had conditions for rising prices. The market has limited room for decline in the short term.

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