Price trend

Against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic performance this week, the overall expectations for the steel market were poor, with a sharp drop in hot coil futures prices, putting some pressure on the spot market and causing an overall decline in spot galvanized sheet coil prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of galvanized steel coils in China had slightly decreased this week. As of December 20th, the average market price of galvanized steel coils in China was 4,395.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to the previous week.

Analysis review

Fundamentals: Although the galvanizing company's inventory continued to be depleted this week and traders' inventory pressure was not high, as the end of the year approached, the current terminal stocking willingness was weak, and demand was lukewarm or even weak. Market quotations were difficult to close, and merchants had to lower prices and ship goods to recoup funds. According to the latest data obtained by SunSirs, the overall production rate of galvanized sheet this week was 81.97%; The capacity utilization rate was 59.62%, an increase of 0.03% from last week; The weekly output was 850,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week.

This week, the social inventory of galvanized sheet continued to decline, and the overall inventory pressure in the market was not significant. As of December 20th, the inventory of steel mills was 470,900 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week; Social inventory was 959,900 tons, a decrease of 9200 tons from last week; The total inventory was 1.4308 million tons, a decrease of 8300 tons from last week.

Industry dynamics: According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November 2024, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 3.109 million and 3.001 million respectively, an increase of 14.9% and 9% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 14.9% and 15.2%, respectively. From January to November 2024, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 24.459 million and 24.435 million respectively, an increase of 4.3% and 5% year-on-year.

Market outlook

Overall, the demand in the northern market was basically stagnant, and transactions in the southern market were gradually becoming difficult. SunSirs’ analysis shows that the price of galvanized steel coils may continue to be weak in the short term.

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