Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market experienced a slight decline today (December 26), with mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions generally lowering prices by 50 RMB/ton. The average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm was 7,168 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous trading day.

Analysis review

From the perspective of raw materials, geopolitical concerns, despite the unstable demand outlook, still limited the upward space due to the expectation of crude oil surplus. As of December 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 70.10 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 73.58 US dollars per barrel. PX factories mainly focused on maintaining normal production, with sufficient domestic PX spot supply and high inventory background unchanged. In addition, with the approaching Christmas holiday, participants' cautious trading mentality had increased.

Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend, but the increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. As of December 25th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4,831 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to December 18th. In terms of supply, Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million ton PTA plant wasshut down on December 9th, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million ton PTA plant underwent maintenance on December 12th, with an unspecified restart date. Dushan Energy's new 2.7 million ton unit started production on December 20th, and it needed to pay attention to the subsequent increase in load. From the perspective of the fourth quarter, there were not many overall maintenance of PTA plants, and the industry's current operating rate was stable at around 86%, with an expected accumulation of inventory.

Downstream yarn factories mainly focused on stabilizing prices and shipping. As of December 26th, the market price of pure polyester yarn T32S in Fujian was between 11,300-11,800 RMB/ton. Cotton mills had less inventory, and due to weak confidence in the future market in some downstream areas, the market transaction atmosphere was light, so they mainly adopted small order rigid demand procurement for short fibers. The overall demand was weak, and most downstream companies chose to stop work to reduce burden. The enthusiasm for starting work was low, and the operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang had declined to below 67%.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the crude oil market continued to fluctuate, and with the production of qualified products from new PTA capacity, the PTA market will have sufficient supply in the future, with average cost support. Downstream demand remained high, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market lacked substantial positive drivers, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will continue to decline.

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