Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, in early December, the price of bulk dichloromethane in Shandong Province rose to 3,098 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.51% compared to the beginning of the month; As of December 27th, the average price of bulk dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2,725 RMB/ton, a monthly decrease of 8.86%.

Analysis review

In the first week of December, dichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise, with a slight increase. The maintenance of enterprises’ equipments had not been restored, the manufacturer's quotation was firm, downstream demand was insufficient, and there was a strong wait-and-see attitude. Inventory was under pressure, and the manufacturer's quotation had been lowered, causing the market to fall. After a continuous decline in prices, downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods increased, export orders increased, and manufacturers had raised their prices accordingly.

On the supply side: It is understood that the maintenance equipment of the enterprise has not yet been restored within the month and is expected to restart soon. Another enterprise equipment will undergo maintenance in rotation. The workload for starting work next month will increase slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market continued to rise, with high holding costs, tight supply at certain stages, stable demand, and continuous destocking by enterprises. As of December 27th, the spot price of methanol in SunSirs was 2,711.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.58% from the beginning of the month. The market for liquid chlorine in Shandong has experienced a wide decline, with weak demand and downward pressure. As of December 27th, the average price wwas at 100 RMB/ton, and at the beginning of the month it was between 300-500 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: With the gradual recovery of downstream industry demand and the expected growth of domestic demand, especially the strong promotion of the refrigerant market, there were few annual quotas left, waiting for the restart of the new annual quota. In terms of price, external market adjustments and expected price increases in quarterly order negotiations have driven the market back into an upward channel. On December 27th. quotation has risen by 1,000-2,000 RMB/ton to 42,000-43,000 RMB/ton, which is expected to support the upward trend of dichloromethane market.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the fluctuation of raw materials is difficult to form support, supply is expected to increase, upward momentum is hindered, refrigerant quotas are restarted, operating loads are increasing, prices are bullish at high levels, and demand support is strong. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will be steadily and strongly in the short term.

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