According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of locally refined gasoline rose in late December, while diesel prices mainly fell. As of the end of the month, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,996 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.66% in late December; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,777 RMB/ton, with a price trend of 1.33% in the latter half of the year.

Cost side: Crude oil prices fluctuate, and cost support is limited

The recent international oil price market has been mainly volatile. As of December 30th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.99 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.39 per barrel. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC's production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the prospect of crude oil demand is not optimistic, which suppresses the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price fluctuates widely, and the cost support for the domestic refined oil market is limited. The domestic gasoline price trend is rising, while the diesel price trend is declining.

Supply side: There is little change in the low-level supply side of Shandong's local refining operation

In recent times, the operating rate of main refineries may remain stable, with limited fluctuations in resource supply. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 58%, while the operating rate of main refineries nationwide remains around 82%. There is little change in the operating rate of local refineries, and the supply of finished oil is stable. Export profits have improved, and some units still have high export intentions. Due to stricter tax inspections, the scope of consumption tax on gasoline raw materials has expanded, and costs have risen, which has brought certain positive support to the trend of gasoline.

Demand side: Normal demand situation, average gasoline and diesel market

In terms of gasoline, there has been a strong demand for gasoline in the past two seasons, and gasoline terminal consumption has increased compared to before. Intermediaries are replenishing their inventory according to demand, and with the decrease in temperature, the use of car air conditioning has increased, which is favorable for the gasoline market. However, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, and the gasoline market trend slightly increased in late December. In terms of diesel, the northern region is affected by the cold wave, with severe weather restricting outdoor mining, infrastructure and other units from starting work. With the decline in activity in the logistics and transportation industry, the demand for diesel has not performed well. However, in terms of export driving diesel demand, traders and terminal enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and refineries are reducing prices for promotions. Overall, the diesel price market has slightly fallen.

Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. International crude oil may experience wide fluctuations. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has not changed much, and the supply of refined oil has eased market pressure. The demand for gasoline is still acceptable, but the impact on new energy cannot be underestimated, and gasoline market prices have slightly increased; In terms of diesel demand, with the gradual weakening of demand and the reduction of diesel usage, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market remains weak in the short term.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.